“We have work to do with our community,” AAPS superintendent Jeanice Swift says, “to see what they want in their schools.”In November, Ann Arbor voters decisively rejected a ballot proposal to annex the Whitmore Lake schools. Though the proposal passed overwhelmingly in Whitmore Lake, both communities had to approve the merger, so the plan to add more than 900 students and three buildings to the Ann Arbor district is dead.

“What I’m hearing from folks is that they did not reject the idea of Whitmore Lake,” Swift says. “They rejected the deal the state was giving us. The financial deal they were offered by the state [an extra $100 a year for every student in the expanded district] wasn’t incentive enough.”

Proponents framed the annexation as a solution to a shrinking student base. “According to SEMCOG [Southeast Michigan Council of Governments], Ann Arbor’s school-age population for 2015 to 2020 will see a 4.3 percent decline,” says Washtenaw Intermediate School District superintendent Scott Menzel. “That seems likely given declining birthrates [during the recession]. Less people are being born than are graduating.”

Swift believes that Ann Arbor can transcend that trend. “We are the economic hub of the region,” she says. “I don’t see a decline in enrollment going forward.”

“The demographics do not include an accurate view of the future,” agrees school board member Christine Stead. “Yes, the birthrate has been declining, but Ann Arbor has been growing since 2010. Eighty percent of the people who moved to Michigan moved to our area.”

In an email, trustee Andy Thomas concurs. “Ann Arbor is still a destination community for many people, due to the University and all the medical, engineering and high-tech jobs associated with it,” he writes. “My guess is that Ann Arbor will have stable to slightly increased enrollment over the next five years.”

Menzel agrees that there’s reason for hope. Two large subdivisions already proposed for the northeast side promise to deliver more schoolkids–though just how many is unclear. “It depends on price of the houses,” Menzel explains. “At the mid- to upper-price range, you end up with less students per household. At a lower cost, you get more students per household.”

And increasing the population isn’t the only way to grow enrollment. “It’s a market share question,” Menzel explains: “What percent of [the school district’s] population is currently not attending their schools, and can they reverse that? It’s already happening: their enrollment is up. They were able to recapture part of that market share through their ‘schools of choice’ program.”

“Parents are looking for a quality education, which is becoming more and more challenging to find,” Swift argues. “And that’s what we offer in Ann Arbor, a top-quality education.”

Ann Arbor has already won back some students–though not as many as Swift and the board hoped. The district opened 750 schools-of-choice seats last spring and, for budget purposes, assumed that it would fill 400 of them. This year’s fall count found 16,815 students, up 366 students from last year.

“This will cause a revenue shortfall of approximately $250,000,” writes Thomas. “That is a significant number but not enough to wreck the budget. We have some time to make adjustments in spending to mitigate the effect.”

“It’s not a big, bad change,” adds trustee Glenn Nelson. “It’s more modest than usually happens in the budget. We have not had to use our short-term borrowing–which is a good sign. We were mentally prepared to use it to make payroll in late summer/early fall, but we didn’t have to.”

Nelson, annexation’s strongest advocate, won’t have to worry about those future budgets: he didn’t run for reelection. Also stepping down is another supporter, Irene Patalan. They’ll be replaced by Donna Lasinski, who was neutral on annexation, and Patricia Manley, who opposed it. Although supporter Christine Stead won reelection, both she and Lasinski trailed annexation’s most vigorous opponent, incumbent Susan Baskett.

Baskett believes annexation failed because “it wasn’t persuasive. There was not enough substance there.” While other trustees had doubts about the economics of annexation, Baskett alone saw an educational downside. “We have our own challenges I’d like us to focus on,” she says. “It would have taken attention away from our own problems.”

Baskett’s was the top vote-getter among ten candidates, so it seems her opposition resonated with voters throughout the district. She also made racial representation an issue. Responding to an email in which Andy Thomas endorsed four white candidates, Baskett wrote:

“The recommendations would create a deep and powerful vacuum on the Board that is not reflective of the community. It would leave only one African American, Trustee [Simone] Lightfoot. Would this disregard for the voice of diversity adversely impact the hard work and academic progress we have made on behalf of our students over the past several years? I simply offer that it would.”

Thomas says his endorsements were “based on who I thought would do the best job for all the students of Ann Arbor. One of the deciding factors for me was that several candidates (including Trustee Baskett) ran on an openly pro-labor slate. While I respect our union members, I think it is wrong to place the interests of unions above the interests of students.”

In the end, Baskett’s fears proved unfounded. Manley will join Baskett and Lightfoot as one of three African Americans on the seven-member board.

“We will have a presence,” predicts Baskett. “It’ll be harder to ignore issues related to the Ann Arbor [African American] community because we’ll be there.” But Baskett says the board still isn’t representative. “We don’t have any Asian Americans or a Latino or an openly gay person. And when was the last time we had an African American father on the board?”

Thomas isn’t buying. “I don’t believe board membership should reflect racial, ethnic, or gender quotas. But if anyone is truly concerned about whether or not the Board reflects the ethnic and gender makeup of the city, I would point out that we have no Chinese, Japanese, Pakistani, Indian (Asian), Native American, Hispanic, or Arab members–and that after January 1, I will be the only male.”

Baskett believes the idea of annexing Whitmore Lake to Ann Arbor is dead. “There are four people against annexation on the board. If they bring this up again, they’re going to have to persuade four doubters.”

Menzel says she needn’t worry. “We won’t discuss this with Ann Arbor again. We’re looking for other partners. Dexter, Brighton, Pinckney, and South Lyon are all possibilities.”