| August 7, 2026Can you guess what’s pictured above? Click the image to find out! |
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| | It’s trendy in journalist and political-obsessive circles to refer to the “prediction markets” for intel on who will win an election. I did it in last week’s a2view, and now I regret it.
They’re basically casinos for politics, but this week’s Ann Arbor mayoral election proved how absurd and perhaps corrupt they are. This is a bit of a bugaboo for me; I columnized about these problems as far back as 2022.
On the website Kalshi, Mayor Christopher Taylor seemed to be an easy favorite for most of the campaign. He’s been “ahead” for weeks and his most recent peak came on July 29 with an 85 percent chance of beating challenger Yousef Rabhi. On August 3, for whatever reason, Rabhi overtook Taylor as the bettors’ favorite. Then, at about 10:30 a.m. on Election Day, the odds flipped again and Taylor was the favorite until about 1:30 p.m. That’s when Rabhi surged again and eventually won out. (The intra-day shifts are inexplicably not showing up on Kalshi’s current graphs, so it’s good that I screenshotted it.)
What does any of this mean? Who knows, but it’s not good for democracy or journalism. What could influence these odds? Polling, perhaps, though this race saw very little public polling compared to the cycle’s more high-profile races. And the last major poll, which came on July 28, showed Rabhi up 51–38. A day later, Taylor’s odds went up before deflating. Maybe the many polls showing El-Sayed winning big led to an impression that there could be coattails for the similarly progressive Rabhi? Okay, but then what went on in the middle of the day on Election Day that jostled the lines again?
This was a medium-sized city’s mayoral primary; it’s unlikely there were exit polls that could inform bettors. The total sum wagered was a piddly $31,948; a large wager in any particular direction could move the line dramatically.
This all seems so ripe for insider trading (in election intel) and/or election interference. Maybe Taylor voters saw his safe lead and decided they didn’t need to vote? It seemed especially surprising to me that the betting markets in these races remained open after the polls closed; at that point there absolutely were people with clear knowledge of who was winning.
When I used the Kalshi odds last week here, I thought it was an entertaining piece of data. But now I realize it wasn’t benign because, unlike polling, there was no data science behind it, even though it looks like there is. So I pledge to be more careful – and so should you in consuming this “information.”
Your news is here. The mayoral and Senate elections are the biggest headlines, but don’t sleep on the anti-data center fervor on display Tuesday in Augusta Twp. Meanwhile, cyclosporiasis has claimed two Michigan lives, and AAPS teachers still have no contract.
This is last week’s most-clicked link.
– Steve Friess, editor |
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| | | | | | | | | Yousef Rabhi routs Taylor in a mixed night for progressives: Mayor Christopher Taylor, who cruised to easy victories three times before, was crushed by an anti-establishment mood that also carried Ann Arbor’s Abdul El-Sayed to the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate by a razor-thin margin. Rabhi, a county commissioner, former state rep, and Democratic Socialist, made affordable housing a cornerstone of his campaign, criticizing the dramatic pro-density zoning changes expected under the new comprehensive land-use plan that Taylor championed. Rabhi also favors replacing DTE with a city-run power utility. Still, it was hardly a clean sweep for Rabhi’s slate – Taylor-endorsed incumbents Cynthia Harrison and Jenn Cornell as well as Ann Arbor District Library board member Aidan Sova and marketing consultant Sandy Aldrich soundly won their races for council seats. In Ward 3, though, fellow DSA member Ryan Bartholomew, the legislative director for Ann Arbor state rep Carrie Rheingans, defeated Taylor-endorsed Ashley Hall. Given the dominance of Democrats in Ann Arbor, the primaries were tantamount to the general election. But the framing of the mayor’s race from Michigan Public before Tuesday proved less than prophetic – voters may have rejected Taylor, but they did not reject in any big way the council that approved his signature policies. Taylor posted a graceful concession message on social media, and you can read Rabhi’s victory speech here.
Of note: While El-Sayed – whose victory speech can be watched here – eked out a surprisingly close win statewide, his largest margin of victory came in Washtenaw County, according to the New York Times map. |
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| | Augusta Twp. voters reverse data center zoning: In a stunning display of civic anger, the electorate of the small rural municipality in the southeast corner of the county voted by a nine-to-one margin to reverse a zoning change passed unanimously by the township board in July 2025 that allowed for a $1 billion data center west of Milan. With the vote, 522 acres will be returned to agricultural-residential from general-industrial. Next up: all seven township trustees could face recall elections in November if the petition signatures are affirmed. Meanwhile, the new battlefront over the OpenAI-Oracle hyperscale data center in Saline Twp. is over whether the company can discharge its treated wastewater into the Saline River. |
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| | Deaths from parasite outbreak not in Washtenaw County: That’s what the county health department spokesperson tells a2view even as the state has not disclosed where the two deaths occurred. Still, cyclosporiasis – which causes intense diarrhea and typically infects humans who eat tainted, fresh produce – continues its vicious march across the nation. Six new states joined Michigan and eight others in monitoring outbreaks. Our state is by far the hardest hit with more than 12,000 cases – and Washtenaw County is now over 1,000. Kate Wells of NPR’s Morning Edition filed this report from the offices of WCHD on what it’s like on the frontlines of this outbreak. |
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| | Talks stalled, AAPS turns to state fact-finding process: With a month to go before the new school year begins, the Ann Arbor Education Association and AAPS leaders held mediated talks again on Tuesday that seemed to do little to advance negotiations, insiders told a2view outside of the administration building. One negotiator said the district offers have not changed much since the one the union voted down in April – reductions in specials, increases in class sizes, and modest annual raises. On Wednesday, the board of education announced it would be “moving forward with fact-finding” in which a neutral state appointee would oversee a public hearing at which “both parties present their positions, then issue a public report with non-binding recommendations.” That move blindsided the AAEA, according to a missive sent to members which read in part, “This latest action by the district feels less like an effort to resolve differences and more like an unnecessary escalation that undermines the collaborative process we have worked hard to preserve.” Ann Arbor teachers have worked under an expired contract for more than seven months. |
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| | | A special election turns weird: I report this month on the peculiar saga of former AAPS trustee Don Wilkerson, who resigned his seat amid a domestic violence charge and is now running in a special election in November to reclaim the post now that the charge has been dismissed. One of his two opponents for the seat, John Benson, questions whether Wilkerson’s personal drama is really over. “It just doesn’t feel right to only have the person who just resigned running for it,” Benson told me. “Look, maybe he feels like things are in the past already, but when something comes along that could make someone resign and there are schools and the 16,000 kids and all the teachers involved, it’s worth asking: is there really no chance that something else could have them happen to need to drop out, you know, this year or next year, right?” Benson and former Pioneer High class principal Kevin Hudson are running in the special election to serve the last two years of the four-year term Wilkerson won in 2024.
Local state reps lead charge against U-M’s territorial expansion: Furious over the university’s purchase of most of the former Concordia University campus along Geddes, Jason Morgan and Morgan Foreman of Ann Arbor and Jimmie Wilson Jr. of Ypsilanti have introduced legislation to subject U-M to local zoning laws and guidelines, Micheline Maynard reports. “The volume of land being purchased is extreme,” Morgan says, noting that the Concordia purchase happened without public notice or discussion.
Lima Twp. activists sink Consumers plan: As several communities try to figure out how to block major corporations from building massive data centers, they can take note of how a small township between Ann Arbor and Chelsea prompted the utility to cancel a proposed gas-fired power plant. Trilby MacDonald writes about their secret weapon: Scio Twp. resident Jeff Parness, who lent his connections and political/corporate know-how to the fight. |
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| | | In other election and school news, the AAPS sinking fund millage renewal passed overwhelmingly.
As for our next election, Ann Arbor voters will get to weigh in in November on whether to replace DTE with a city-run power company, Ann Arbor for Public Power announced. Even if the ballot initiative passes, though, it’s just a first step.
MLive did a great job with this deep dive into the alleged Morgan Wallen ticket huckster.
The state says there’s evidence Democratic AG nominee and Washtenaw County prosecutor Eli Savit may have violated campaign finance laws.
If it’s summer, there must be a beach closure at Independence Lake over high levels of E. coli. Keep an eye on this link to find out when the county reopens it.
AAPS administrators revealed a draft plan to the board to implement a ban on phone and device use in class starting this fall.
The local homeless shelter is bracing for what to do this winter after its capacity drops even as the need rises.
A segment of the B2B Trail in Bandemer Park closed on August 3 for repairs that the city says may take two weeks.
The family of the fifteen-year-old Ypsilanti Twp. boy who died in July from an accidental gunshot wound and the fourteen-year-old girl who drowned in the Detroit River saving a cousin in June has launched a GoFundMe to defray funeral costs.
Beginning in fall 2027, grades for LSA classes won’t be recorded on external transcripts during the first academic semester. It’ll be pass or no-credit.
AAFD is excited about its first new firehouse since 1981. The Observer wrote about the facility’s pioneering namesake last year.
A Saline teen is the youngest person to summit Mount Elbrus, Europe’s tallest peak. She brought a U-M flag, of course.
As if your gut didn’t have enough to fear these days, Blank Slate Creamery issued a recall of vegan non-dairy Coconut Fudge sandwiches because of “undeclared eggs.”
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| | Juicy Kitchen rises from the ashes: The Maple Rd. restaurant, shut down by a catastrophic fire in September, plans to reopen in August, and its owners Aaron and Kelby Ziola (above) tell Dave Algase in this month’s Observer they’re ready for a fresh start. Their insurance, along with their landlord’s, covered most of the rebuild, and a business continuity policy kept them and their staff solvent for a while. A GoFundMe campaign that raised more than $28,000 helped them retain eleven of their fourteen employees.
Independent grocery coming to downtown: Sage’s, which will specialize in European and Asian fare, is expected to open this winter at the corner of Main and Madison, Concentrate reports. The owners, Allison and Brian Lee, have named the shop after their three-year-old daughter.
Fly Paper adds retail outlet: The Ann Arbor–based international wholesaler of literary- and vintage-themed greeting cards, gifts, and home goods added a store section to its 8,000-square-foot production facility off Jackson Rd., Algase writes. |
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| | | Tickets available for Garrett’s Space fundraiser: The August 29 soirée on the campus of WCC benefits the nonprofit focused on expanding mental health and suicide prevention resources for young adults. The event, which runs from 6–9 p.m., will feature light refreshments, a silent auction, speakers, and live entertainment including a performance by the U-M a capella group Touch of Blue. Tickets, on sale here, range from $25 to $100 depending on the attendee’s age, plus there’s a give-what-you-can option.
Free car seat check-ins: The Washtenaw County sheriff’s office and the Ypsilanti Twp. neighborhood watch hold events every other month to ensure the seats are installed and are being used properly, the Eastern Echo reports. The next dates are September 12 and November 14 from noon to 3 p.m. at Grace Fellowship Community Life Center, 1375 S. Harris in Ypsi.
Volunteers sought for cemetery restoration work: The African American Cultural & Historical Museum of Washtenaw County invites helpers to come clean up Woodlawn Cemetery, the only documented Black cemetery in the county, from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. this Saturday (August 8) or August 22 and 29. The museum is leading a partnership of organizations who are restoring Woodlawn, located at 7800 S. Huron River Dr. in Ypsi. Volunteers should bring gardening tools (hedgers, rakes, nippers, etc.) and wear work clothes and sturdy shoes. Refreshments will be served. |
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Friday: The Michigan Theater screens CatVideoFest, a compilation of funny and cute online cat videos. A portion of proceeds goes to the Humane Society of Huron Valley.
Saturday: Drop in to U-M Detroit Observatory’s Saturday Open House to tour the historic building, view exhibits, and use the observatory’s telescopes (weather permitting).
Sunday: The Annual Ton-Up Motorcycle & Music Festival features live music from neo-rockabilly band the Atomic BombCatz to biker boogie riffs by Electric Huldra. Also, a display of motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters, and food concessions. Admission is free.
See the Observer’s online calendar for many more local events. |
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